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Reyes now and then
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flakenstein



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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DGB44 wrote:
all numbers aside, I don't know how a knowledgeable baseball fan could watch 20 Mets games this year and not see that his approach at the plate has clearly improved.


if you think getting a few more walks and less hits is improvement hey more power to ya. OBP/SLG/OPS are essentially the same. In fact, I would prefer getting more hits vs walks
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senor_mike
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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakenstein wrote:
AnybodyButBengie wrote:
Or this stat:

In 2006, Reyes has 12 walks and only 1 strikeout with a 3-2 count.

So what's more plausible... 1) he always takes on 3-2 and only one major league pitcher has thrown him a strike or 2) you're a dumbass.


here we go again with the name calling -
as usual, i only need to refer to the following #s

this season: 250 ba .316 obp .394 slg .708 ops
career: 274 ba .305 obp .395 slg .700 ops

improvement?

Here's your improvement

1st 20 games
AB: 86
BA: .233
OBP: .275
SLG: .360
OPS: .635
BB: 5
K: 14

2nd 20 games
AB: 90
BA: .278
OBP: .357
SLG: .456
OPS: .813
BB: 11
K: 11

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jamieturbo



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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

senor_mike wrote:
flakenstein wrote:
AnybodyButBengie wrote:
Or this stat:

In 2006, Reyes has 12 walks and only 1 strikeout with a 3-2 count.

So what's more plausible... 1) he always takes on 3-2 and only one major league pitcher has thrown him a strike or 2) you're a dumbass.


here we go again with the name calling -
as usual, i only need to refer to the following #s

this season: 250 ba .316 obp .394 slg .708 ops
career: 274 ba .305 obp .395 slg .700 ops

improvement?

Here's your improvement

1st 20 games
AB: 86
BA: .233
OBP: .275
SLG: .360
OPS: .635
BB: 5
K: 14

2nd 20 games
AB: 90
BA: .278
OBP: .357
SLG: .456
OPS: .813
BB: 11
K: 11


call me crazy, but that looks like improvement to me.....but, it is still only 20 game samples......hopefully the best is still ahead of him this year (and the rest of his career)...
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flakenstein



Joined: 18 May 2006
Posts: 16

PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

senor_mike wrote:
flakenstein wrote:
AnybodyButBengie wrote:
Or this stat:

In 2006, Reyes has 12 walks and only 1 strikeout with a 3-2 count.

So what's more plausible... 1) he always takes on 3-2 and only one major league pitcher has thrown him a strike or 2) you're a dumbass.


here we go again with the name calling -
as usual, i only need to refer to the following #s

this season: 250 ba .316 obp .394 slg .708 ops
career: 274 ba .305 obp .395 slg .700 ops

improvement?

Here's your improvement

1st 20 games
AB: 86
BA: .233
OBP: .275
SLG: .360
OPS: .635
BB: 5
K: 14

2nd 20 games
AB: 90
BA: .278
OBP: .357
SLG: .456
OPS: .813
BB: 11
K: 11


You're missing the point. Reyes hit .328 last july. .260 the rest of the way. My point is that when its all said and done he'll have the same inept #s as hes consistently put up in his career.
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Freeball177



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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How bout we wait until the end of the year for that. I think everyone sees improvement, which is what I think most people on the board wanted

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IceySpoons



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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakenstein wrote:
You're missing the point. Reyes hit .328 last july. .260 the rest of the way. My point is that when its all said and done he'll have the same inept #s as hes consistently put up in his career.


and at 326 games, a real whopper of a career it is! that's definitely enough of a career to say a guy is consistently inept at the plate.
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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakenstein wrote:
You're missing the point. Reyes hit .328 last july. .260 the rest of the way. My point is that when its all said and done he'll have the same inept #s as hes consistently put up in his career.


I guess I'm missing your point because you keep on changing it when someone snuffs out the original.

If your point is about what his numbers are going to look like at the end of the season, then why bother setting the 20 game precendent?

I mean, it is a bit ironic that you open the thread stating that Reyes still sucks based on 20 game-block observations, but decide that doesn't matter any more when another poster uses that same measuring standard to contradict your point.

The reality is that you made a claim, a thread opener nonetheless, without checking its' validity.

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David Wright will hit 325 and set a Mets record with 130 rbi, go out with your daughter and never call her again. You will blame her for not being good enough
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flakenstein



Joined: 18 May 2006
Posts: 16

PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

senor_mike wrote:
flakenstein wrote:
You're missing the point. Reyes hit .328 last july. .260 the rest of the way. My point is that when its all said and done he'll have the same inept #s as hes consistently put up in his career.


I guess I'm missing your point because you keep on changing it when someone snuffs out the original.

If your point is about what his numbers are going to look like at the end of the season, then why bother setting the 20 game precendent?

I mean, it is a bit ironic that you open the thread stating that Reyes still sucks based on 20 game-block observations, but decide that doesn't matter any more when another poster uses that same measuring standard to contradict your point.

The reality is that you made a claim, a thread opener nonetheless, without checking its' validity.


im not sure what you're getting @:
after 40 games - .250 avg ..315 obp .395 slg .708 ops
yeah these #s do [CENSORED] - no validity? please elaborate
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FONZIE993



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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm pretty sure after around 1 year of doing this, we got your point

YOU HATE JOSE REYES!
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JPSchmack
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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakenstein wrote:
how come JP never responds to these reyes "arguments"?
I mean, he surely knows the value of "runs scored"


JP rarely gets into these arguments because it usually turns into a "black or white" argument between people with an emotional attachment to Reyes arguing he's young and getting better vs a "win for me now or else" contingent who see his OBP is much to low to be a leadoff man.

As usual, JP falls in the middle.

#1 - Isnt the whole point of leadoff hitter to score runs?
The point of an offense is to score runs.
The manager's job is to determine what order to bat his nine guys to score the most runs.
Does Reyes' high run total mean he's a good leadoff man? Maybe, since part of his job is to score. Part of his job is to drive runs in. The best way you accomplish both is by "not making outs." That puts you on-base, keeps the inning alive, and often drives in runs. Jose Reyes needs to make less outs. That's a fact.

#2 - Is Reyes an inept leadoff man?
Not at all. He's a lack-luster OBP guy, that's for sure. But he definitely has a knack for scoring when he DOES get on base:

Look at OBP - Total Plate Apps - Runs - percentage of R/TPA
Jose Reyes .316 OBP - 206 TPA - 33 R (16.1%)
Kevin Youkilis .424 - 184 TPA - 27 R (14.6%) *and yes, 166 of those TPA are from the leadoff spot*

Reyes scores more often (as a pct, not total runs) than Youkilis, despite Youkilis having an OBP that's 108 points better.

So clearly, Jose Reyes' SPEED makes up for a low OBP in some amount

THAT is the REAL reason JP rarely comments on Reyes' leadoff prowess and the runs scored argument. Because JP cannot quantify how much OBP Reyes' speed is worth.

I'd do a simple analysis of R/TPA to quantify how much, but it's not that simple. The OBP and power of the batters hitting behind you affects your runs scored.

I may try with Youkilis and Reyes, because it's a great study in contrast: Reyes low OBP + blazin speed vs Youkilis' Greak God of Walks + Cement Shoes.

However, what do you include? Do you eliminate their runs from home runs? Since speed does not effect the seven times combined they've homered? Do you count the runs they scored from the times their protection homers? Reyes' speed can affect pitch selection to Beltran and Delgado and result in a HR, does Reyes get credit for that? Does Youkilis? Not so much.

#3 - So what does JP think about Reyes leading off, period?
Well, I've said from the get-go that you CAN win with a speedy, low-OBP leadoff man... but you NEED to have a high-OBP guy hitting behind him. Like last year when Rollins had a .338 OBP and Lofton had a .383 behind him. Or when the Cardinals had .320 Vince Coleman and .420 Willie McGee in 1985.
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LCN0931



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Posts: 602

PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reyes has shown he is a 2nd half player, which means you can expect his average to probably go to .270-.280 and given the additional walks hisOBP may wind up at .350 this year....add in 60-70 SBs and 100+ runs and I don't think you can say there is anything bad about his play.
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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakenstein wrote:
senor_mike wrote:
flakenstein wrote:
You're missing the point. Reyes hit .328 last july. .260 the rest of the way. My point is that when its all said and done he'll have the same inept #s as hes consistently put up in his career.


I guess I'm missing your point because you keep on changing it when someone snuffs out the original.

If your point is about what his numbers are going to look like at the end of the season, then why bother setting the 20 game precendent?

I mean, it is a bit ironic that you open the thread stating that Reyes still sucks based on 20 game-block observations, but decide that doesn't matter any more when another poster uses that same measuring standard to contradict your point.

The reality is that you made a claim, a thread opener nonetheless, without checking its' validity.


im not sure what you're getting @:
after 40 games - .250 avg ..315 obp .395 slg .708 ops
yeah these #s do [CENSORED] - no validity? please elaborate

Well I've already fallen into your circular argument trap, but hey.

- You say after 20 games that Reyes is perpetually terrible and that he isn't improving because using that first 20 game performance at your standard.
- Then after the next 20 games you say he is still ineffective.
- Someone shows you the drastic improvement of Reyes from games 21-40
- Next you change your point to 'Well he still sucks because collectively his numbers are still bad'.
- Then I ask 'why bother to examine his first 40 games if your point explicitly ties to his full-season performance'?

You establish in the opening post that you are evaluating him over 20 game blocks. Well, games 1-20 were bad, and games 21-40 were good. Let's see how the next 6 blocks play out before you are proved right.

****
Anyway, your point is that Jose Reyes sucks. You're are using his stats to make this claim. Fine, enjoy. The majority of the board disagrees that taking a snap-shot of his numbers is the correct way to evaluate him.

But please, humor me on some questions.

- Do you believe that his 27 point OPS over last season does not qualify as an improvement? If no, then what kind of numbers would Reyes need to have now in your opinion that would?
- Do you believe that 22/23 are more likely to continue to improve than to plateau?
- What do you believe that a reasonable improvement path is for a player up to his plateau season (age and simple OPS will do)?
- Do you believe that being over-aggressive at the plate was one of his core weaknesses as a hitter, and that he is on the correct path towards eliminating that weakness?

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David Wright will hit 325 and set a Mets record with 130 rbi, go out with your daughter and never call her again. You will blame her for not being good enough
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yoondawg
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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jose Reyes OBP

Apri 26 .296
May 7 .345
May 23 .316

The sample size is too small to be arguing this at this point. There are many peripheral stats that clearly shows Jose has made improvements on his plate discipline.

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RedxDragon



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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2006 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakentoolbag on time as usual. This motherfucker never comes out when Reyes is on a hot streak. You only crawl out when he's slumping. How convenient as always.

Signed,

Red
Fucking Dragon NOT Rex Fucking Dragon.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakenstein wrote:


im not sure what you're getting @:
after 40 games - .250 avg ..315 obp .395 slg .708 ops
yeah these #s do [CENSORED] - no validity? please elaborate


after 68 games- .269 avg .336 obp .439 slg .775 ops

Not too bad, huh Flake?
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acehumber



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 5:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He has his avg up 2 269 now.He will get it up to about 280 and his OBP will be at 340 a vast improvement from last yr at age 23.Just goes to show how much of an ignorant tool you are Flake if you have not seen an improvement. he is on pace to walk 60+ times ya jakov
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jwill8204
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 5:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i know this is Off topic, but what exactly is a jakov? and why is flak one? I mean its not even a wiki, so it must be very new and innovative. and im just trying to stay with the times.

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m2c2c2
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flakenstein wrote:
wow
people still respond with the "runs" argument
simply amazing


Last time I checked that was how they kept score.

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Old_Backstop



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 7:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).

The good news is that he has shown he is willing to learn/try. This is key. If he can maintain the discipline at the plate, then he can work on his hitting as he matures.

Personally, I don't think Jose will ever reach the potential that many have put on him, but like Jimmy Rollins last year -- after a bunch of seasons -- he may put it together and start being a productive leadoff hitter.

For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base, take into consideration that anyone in our lineup would score 100 runs this season in the leadoff role (including Jose Pornstache and Xavier Nady) if given that many plate appearances in front of Beltran, Delgado & Wright.

Heck, Eric Valent getting 700 PAs in front of those guys probably scores 80-90 runs Wink
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old_Backstop wrote:
The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).

The good news is that he has shown he is willing to learn/try. This is key. If he can maintain the discipline at the plate, then he can work on his hitting as he matures.

Personally, I don't think Jose will ever reach the potential that many have put on him, but like Jimmy Rollins last year -- after a bunch of seasons -- he may put it together and start being a productive leadoff hitter.

For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base, take into consideration that anyone in our lineup would score 100 runs this season in the leadoff role (including Jose Pornstache and Xavier Nady) if given that many plate appearances in front of Beltran, Delgado & Wright.

Heck, Eric Valent getting 700 PAs in front of those guys probably scores 80-90 runs Wink


uh, that's the whole point of a lead-off hitter. it's not an arbitrary position given to somebody. the point is to have a guy who when on base creates more runs with his speed. so...yea.... not quite sure what the [CENSORED] your point is.

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