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Reyes now and then
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m2c2c2
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old_Backstop wrote:
The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).


Interestingly, my son is going through a similar problem right now. He is playing with older kids in Legion, and he is leadoff and used to going deep into counts and drawing walks.

The problem is, it is a lot more problematic against older kids with 85 mph heaters who can drop 2 strike hooks on you. So he is k'ing more and picking up less free walks. We are acclimating him now to more aggressively looking for that first and second pitch to stay out of 2 strike situations.

Leadoff is a tangled web. You really have to judge the pitching and how your skills match up against each pitcher.

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Old_Backstop



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).

The good news is that he has shown he is willing to learn/try. This is key. If he can maintain the discipline at the plate, then he can work on his hitting as he matures.

Personally, I don't think Jose will ever reach the potential that many have put on him, but like Jimmy Rollins last year -- after a bunch of seasons -- he may put it together and start being a productive leadoff hitter.

For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base, take into consideration that anyone in our lineup would score 100 runs this season in the leadoff role (including Jose Pornstache and Xavier Nady) if given that many plate appearances in front of Beltran, Delgado & Wright.

Heck, Eric Valent getting 700 PAs in front of those guys probably scores 80-90 runs Wink


uh, that's the whole point of a lead-off hitter. it's not an arbitrary position given to somebody. the point is to have a guy who when on base creates more runs with his speed. so...yea.... not quite sure what the [CENSORED] your point is.


well let me break it "the fuck" down for ya, since you're struggling with it.

Runs scored does not indicate how good someone is at scoring runs. It's kinda like calling a closer the best closer just because he lead the league in save opportunities.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 11:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

well let me break it "the fuck" down for ya, since you're struggling with it.

Runs scored does not indicate how good someone is at scoring runs. It's kinda like calling a closer the best closer just because he lead the league in save opportunities.


hahahaha!!!

Awesome

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

take reyes off this team... see how different things will be
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old_Backstop wrote:
machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).

The good news is that he has shown he is willing to learn/try. This is key. If he can maintain the discipline at the plate, then he can work on his hitting as he matures.

Personally, I don't think Jose will ever reach the potential that many have put on him, but like Jimmy Rollins last year -- after a bunch of seasons -- he may put it together and start being a productive leadoff hitter.

For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base, take into consideration that anyone in our lineup would score 100 runs this season in the leadoff role (including Jose Pornstache and Xavier Nady) if given that many plate appearances in front of Beltran, Delgado & Wright.

Heck, Eric Valent getting 700 PAs in front of those guys probably scores 80-90 runs Wink


uh, that's the whole point of a lead-off hitter. it's not an arbitrary position given to somebody. the point is to have a guy who when on base creates more runs with his speed. so...yea.... not quite sure what the [CENSORED] your point is.


well let me break it "the fuck" down for ya, since you're struggling with it.

Runs scored does not indicate how good someone is at scoring runs. It's kinda like calling a closer the best closer just because he lead the league in save opportunities.


yes, i'm well aware of how stats can be mis-leading and don't only tell the whole story. but you so casually dismiss the runs he scores as a result of his speed, which is why he is batting lead-off in the first place, and the reason you have somebody fast in the lead-off hole. when you say, "For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base" you seem to be missing the point that he creates a fair amount of runs with his speed, a significant amount in fact, an amount that probably wouldn't be replicated by anybody else batting lead-off, save perhaps chavez. So while runs scored aren't the end-all of a lead-off man, you can't dismiss the impact of his speed on the amount of runs he scores. That's the fucking point.

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GleepGlop



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wasn't the whole point that its not about plugging anyone into the 1 hole and them scoring 100+ because of who bats behind you? Doesn't Youkilis with his 400+ OBP receive more protection with Ortiz & Manny?

I believe it has been systematically proven that Reyes, when on base, scores more runs than most other lead-off hitters and certainly more than any other Mets player would (with the exception of maybe Wright, who has some speed and lots of OBP).

This fact is independent of what the hitters do behind him. Let us not forget that even now with the Mets in first place they are still among the lowest in BA with RISP.
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GleepGlop



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can any of you stat guys do an exercise for me? If you added Reyes' stolen bases to his slugging percentage (i.e. a single + a SB = double, a SB on a walk would be a single or something) what would his SLG be?

I guess my point is that Reyes' ability to steal essentially makes him a power hitter at the top of the order.
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AnybodyButBengie
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old_Backstop wrote:

Runs scored does not indicate how good someone is at scoring runs. It's kinda like calling a closer the best closer just because he lead the league in save opportunities.


OK, how about this stat: (R-HR)/(H+BB+HBP) for the top 40 in runs scored

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m2c2c2
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Certainly batting in front of the best and strongest batters will lead to runs scored. But to excel in the stat you have to get on, steal perhaps, not get picked off, be an intelligent runner, advance on sac flies you should and don't get thrown out on ones you shouldn't, and, oh yeah, don't peek inot the outfield too much when running. Tons of intangibles, tough to quantify.

I don't know how to qualify all that, but I know when I look at accumulated stats for a team it always jumps out to me if, say, the 7 hitter has a disproportionate amount of runs scored. That guy is doing the job, and maybe he could be up higher.

When I'm coaching I always ask my kids what the most important offensive stat is....then I say runs scored. (They never guess that). Is it actually? No, but I want the kids to focus on team stuff and not individual numbers.

And lay the bunt down when needed, etc.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AnybodyButBengie: now take the top10 on both lists and figure out the RISP BA of the next 3 batters Smile
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GleepGlop wrote:
AnybodyButBengie: now take the top10 on both lists and figure out the RISP BA of the next 3 batters Smile


How about percentage of the team's runs you score?

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

m2c2c2 wrote:
GleepGlop wrote:
AnybodyButBengie: now take the top10 on both lists and figure out the RISP BA of the next 3 batters Smile


How about percentage of the team's runs you score?


What does that show other than how deep your line-up is?
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).

The good news is that he has shown he is willing to learn/try. This is key. If he can maintain the discipline at the plate, then he can work on his hitting as he matures.

Personally, I don't think Jose will ever reach the potential that many have put on him, but like Jimmy Rollins last year -- after a bunch of seasons -- he may put it together and start being a productive leadoff hitter.

For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base, take into consideration that anyone in our lineup would score 100 runs this season in the leadoff role (including Jose Pornstache and Xavier Nady) if given that many plate appearances in front of Beltran, Delgado & Wright.

Heck, Eric Valent getting 700 PAs in front of those guys probably scores 80-90 runs Wink


uh, that's the whole point of a lead-off hitter. it's not an arbitrary position given to somebody. the point is to have a guy who when on base creates more runs with his speed. so...yea.... not quite sure what the [CENSORED] your point is.


well let me break it "the fuck" down for ya, since you're struggling with it.

Runs scored does not indicate how good someone is at scoring runs. It's kinda like calling a closer the best closer just because he lead the league in save opportunities.


yes, i'm well aware of how stats can be mis-leading and don't only tell the whole story. but you so casually dismiss the runs he scores as a result of his speed, which is why he is batting lead-off in the first place, and the reason you have somebody fast in the lead-off hole. when you say, "For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base" you seem to be missing the point that he creates a fair amount of runs with his speed, a significant amount in fact, an amount that probably wouldn't be replicated by anybody else batting lead-off, save perhaps chavez.


If you are trying to convince me that Jose Reyes is the fastest baserunner on our team, you need not bother because I am already convinced. There is no question that once on base, Jose has a better chance to score than any other player, but at what cost? Will his speed score 2 extra runs per month? How many runs do we lose as a result of his inability to get on base? Is it 2 per month as well? Is it 5 or more?

Quote:
So while runs scored aren't the end-all of a lead-off man, you can't dismiss the impact of his speed on the amount of runs he scores. That's the fucking point.


No one dismissed his speed, but no one knows how to properly measure its value either. If Jose was getting on base 35% of the time no one would care, but since he stinks at getting on base (the primary job of a leadoff hitter), we have to try to decide whether or not his extra speed compensates for his shortcomings.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old_Backstop wrote:
machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).

The good news is that he has shown he is willing to learn/try. This is key. If he can maintain the discipline at the plate, then he can work on his hitting as he matures.

Personally, I don't think Jose will ever reach the potential that many have put on him, but like Jimmy Rollins last year -- after a bunch of seasons -- he may put it together and start being a productive leadoff hitter.

For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base, take into consideration that anyone in our lineup would score 100 runs this season in the leadoff role (including Jose Pornstache and Xavier Nady) if given that many plate appearances in front of Beltran, Delgado & Wright.

Heck, Eric Valent getting 700 PAs in front of those guys probably scores 80-90 runs Wink


uh, that's the whole point of a lead-off hitter. it's not an arbitrary position given to somebody. the point is to have a guy who when on base creates more runs with his speed. so...yea.... not quite sure what the [CENSORED] your point is.


well let me break it "the fuck" down for ya, since you're struggling with it.

Runs scored does not indicate how good someone is at scoring runs. It's kinda like calling a closer the best closer just because he lead the league in save opportunities.


yes, i'm well aware of how stats can be mis-leading and don't only tell the whole story. but you so casually dismiss the runs he scores as a result of his speed, which is why he is batting lead-off in the first place, and the reason you have somebody fast in the lead-off hole. when you say, "For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base" you seem to be missing the point that he creates a fair amount of runs with his speed, a significant amount in fact, an amount that probably wouldn't be replicated by anybody else batting lead-off, save perhaps chavez.


If you are trying to convince me that Jose Reyes is the fastest baserunner on our team, you need not bother because I am already convinced. There is no question that once on base, Jose has a better chance to score than any other player, but at what cost? Will his speed score 2 extra runs per month? How many runs do we lose as a result of his inability to get on base? Is it 2 per month as well? Is it 5 or more?

Quote:
So while runs scored aren't the end-all of a lead-off man, you can't dismiss the impact of his speed on the amount of runs he scores. That's the fucking point.


No one dismissed his speed, but no one knows how to properly measure its value either. If Jose was getting on base 35% of the time no one would care, but since he stinks at getting on base (the primary job of a leadoff hitter), we have to try to decide whether or not his extra speed compensates for his shortcomings.


he gets on-base 33.6% of the time. that extra 1.4% must be a real bitch.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GleepGlop wrote:
AnybodyButBengie: now take the top10 on both lists and figure out the RISP BA of the next 3 batters Smile


Exactly, those are nice stats, but they are relative. It's a scoring percentage of situations that you are on base and you score (excluding homeruns).

1. For starters, it completely ignores the part about how important it is to get on base to begin with. It only looks at times you are on base.

2. It does not account for the guys behind you in the lineup. How many leadoff hitters are blessed with Beltran, Delgado and Wright hitting behind them, all getting on base 40% of the time and all on pace to hit 35-50 HR?

3. It does not tell you how many runs per month extra a guys speed will give you because of #1 and #2 above.

Jose scores 47% of the times he gets on. David Wright only scores 28% of the time, but is that because of their speed? Nah, it's probably because Wright had guys like pornstache, Matsui and Chavez hitting behind him in the lineup.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OB, Baseball Prospectus HAS studied how much of an impact his speed has.

Code:

Best Baserunners, 2005

Player          SB  CS  EqBR    OBP     SOB       +/-
Carl Crawford   34  5   +2.7    .317    .343    +.026
Nook Logan      20  5   +2.6    .299    .325    +.026
Mike Cameron    13  1   +2.2    .341    .367    +.026
Ryan Freel      29  7   +1.7    .381    .405    +.024
J.J. Hardy      0   0   +2.7    .303    .323    +.020
Coco Crisp      12  5   +4.3    .341    .361    +.020
Bobby Kielty    3   2   +3.5    .356    .375    +.019
Bill Hall       13  1   +1.4    .311    .329    +.018
Edgar Renteria  8   3   +3.9    .342    .360    +.018
Marcus Giles    13  3   +2.8    .383    .400    +.017
Julio Lugo      30  5   +1.2    .354    .371    +.017
Ruben Gotay     2   2   +2.9    .284    .301    +.017
Jose Reyes      41  10  +1.6    .296    .312    +.016
Alfonso Soriano 18  2   +1.4    .327    .343    +.016
Mark Teahen     5   1   +1.8    .302    .317    +.015


SOB is speed-adjusted OBP. It takes into account stolen bases, caught stealing, and base running ability beyond just stolen bases(taking extra bases, etc.).

This was done in August of 2005, so a chunk of Reyes' SB aren't taken into account. I'd figure it out for 2006, but I have no idea how they figure out equivalent basestealing runs in the formula they use.

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Old_Backstop



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
machinegunfunk wrote:
Old_Backstop wrote:
The reality is, Jose is trying to be a better player this year.

He is taking more pitches, but it has hurt him as much as helped him (as evidenced by his increased walk totals and lower batting average).

The good news is that he has shown he is willing to learn/try. This is key. If he can maintain the discipline at the plate, then he can work on his hitting as he matures.

Personally, I don't think Jose will ever reach the potential that many have put on him, but like Jimmy Rollins last year -- after a bunch of seasons -- he may put it together and start being a productive leadoff hitter.

For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base, take into consideration that anyone in our lineup would score 100 runs this season in the leadoff role (including Jose Pornstache and Xavier Nady) if given that many plate appearances in front of Beltran, Delgado & Wright.

Heck, Eric Valent getting 700 PAs in front of those guys probably scores 80-90 runs Wink


uh, that's the whole point of a lead-off hitter. it's not an arbitrary position given to somebody. the point is to have a guy who when on base creates more runs with his speed. so...yea.... not quite sure what the [CENSORED] your point is.


well let me break it "the fuck" down for ya, since you're struggling with it.

Runs scored does not indicate how good someone is at scoring runs. It's kinda like calling a closer the best closer just because he lead the league in save opportunities.


yes, i'm well aware of how stats can be mis-leading and don't only tell the whole story. but you so casually dismiss the runs he scores as a result of his speed, which is why he is batting lead-off in the first place, and the reason you have somebody fast in the lead-off hole. when you say, "For those of you who are talking about his runs scored, which is almost irrelevant outside of the extra runs he creates with his speed once on base" you seem to be missing the point that he creates a fair amount of runs with his speed, a significant amount in fact, an amount that probably wouldn't be replicated by anybody else batting lead-off, save perhaps chavez.


If you are trying to convince me that Jose Reyes is the fastest baserunner on our team, you need not bother because I am already convinced. There is no question that once on base, Jose has a better chance to score than any other player, but at what cost? Will his speed score 2 extra runs per month? How many runs do we lose as a result of his inability to get on base? Is it 2 per month as well? Is it 5 or more?

Quote:
So while runs scored aren't the end-all of a lead-off man, you can't dismiss the impact of his speed on the amount of runs he scores. That's the fucking point.


No one dismissed his speed, but no one knows how to properly measure its value either. If Jose was getting on base 35% of the time no one would care, but since he stinks at getting on base (the primary job of a leadoff hitter), we have to try to decide whether or not his extra speed compensates for his shortcomings.


he gets on-base 33.6% of the time. that extra 1.4% must be a real bitch.


Sounds like I am wearing you down.

For starters, I didn't realize he had snuck up to .336. That's much better than even a week or so ago. Good job Jose.

Second, a 1.4% difference is pretty large. Think relative. It's not like there are lots of leadoff hitters getting on base 1% of the time. The top leadoff hitter OBP is 43% (Youkilis), but the lowest is probably around 30% (and guys like Jimmy Rollins who are worse than that get demoted in the lineup), so essentially the range between the best and worst is about 12 percentage points, so 33% is actually in the lower third among leadoff hitters with 35% and above being somewhat respectable.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When Jose finishes the season with a .350 OBP, weíll be able to look back on this thread and share a hearty laugh.
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Old_Backstop



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HireDePodesta wrote:
OB, Baseball Prospectus HAS studied how much of an impact his speed has.

Code:

Best Baserunners, 2005

Player          SB  CS  EqBR    OBP     SOB       +/-
Carl Crawford   34  5   +2.7    .317    .343    +.026
Nook Logan      20  5   +2.6    .299    .325    +.026
Mike Cameron    13  1   +2.2    .341    .367    +.026
Ryan Freel      29  7   +1.7    .381    .405    +.024
J.J. Hardy      0   0   +2.7    .303    .323    +.020
Coco Crisp      12  5   +4.3    .341    .361    +.020
Bobby Kielty    3   2   +3.5    .356    .375    +.019
Bill Hall       13  1   +1.4    .311    .329    +.018
Edgar Renteria  8   3   +3.9    .342    .360    +.018
Marcus Giles    13  3   +2.8    .383    .400    +.017
Julio Lugo      30  5   +1.2    .354    .371    +.017
Ruben Gotay     2   2   +2.9    .284    .301    +.017
Jose Reyes      41  10  +1.6    .296    .312    +.016
Alfonso Soriano 18  2   +1.4    .327    .343    +.016
Mark Teahen     5   1   +1.8    .302    .317    +.015


SOB is speed-adjusted OBP. It takes into account stolen bases, caught stealing, and base running ability beyond just stolen bases(taking extra bases, etc.).

This was done in August of 2005, so a chunk of Reyes' SB aren't taken into account. I'd figure it out for 2006, but I have no idea how they figure out equivalent basestealing runs in the formula they use.


HDP, that is pretty nifty. Any way of telling if it's accurate?

I personally had guessed that Jose's speed was the equivalent of about .020 OBP points (plus I think he gets another .005 for the havoc he causes), but can a guy like Kielty with 0 stolen bases this year, really account for that much OBP with his baserunning?
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old_Backstop wrote:

2. It does not account for the guys behind you in the lineup. How many leadoff hitters are blessed with Beltran, Delgado and Wright hitting behind them, all getting on base 40% of the time and all on pace to hit 35-50 HR?


That's exactly why I included 2005 when Jose had some of, if not the, worst production in the league in the 2-3 spots and still finished as high as he did in that stat. We have the luxury of being able to compare two consecutive seasons where Reyes had awful hitters behind him and great hitters behind him.

Not just that, but this is a consistent trend for Reyes that dates back to the South Atlantic League. You can take a look at his minor league stats. He's a run scoring machine once he gets on regardless of who's around him.


Last edited by AnybodyButBengie on Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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