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Reyes now and then
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FONZIE993



Joined: 29 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hire, I think he ended up the year around .025
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HireDePodesta
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Joined: 14 May 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baseball Prospectus claimed they were going to put eqBR on their site, but I'm not seeing it.

I used the 2006 expected runs matrix to rework the formula they used. Reyes' eqBR on September 5, 2005 was 2.0(133 games). I'll use the same number again, adjusted for the number of games played this year.

So, I'm assuming his eqBR this year is 1.02.

The formula for SOB is:
Code:
            H + BB + HBP + (SB * .343)--CS + (EqBR * 2.27)
  SOB =     ------------------------------------------------
                              PA--SH


Giving Reyes:

Code:

             79 + 29 + 1 + (30 * .343)--7 + (1.02 * 2.27)
  SOB =     ------------------------------------------------
                              325--1



His estimated speed-adjusted OBP this year is .354

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Old_Backstop



Joined: 17 May 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HireDePodesta wrote:
Baseball Prospectus claimed they were going to put eqBR on their site, but I'm not seeing it.

I used the 2006 expected runs matrix to rework the formula they used. Reyes' eqBR on September 5, 2005 was 2.0(133 games). I'll use the same number again, adjusted for the number of games played this year.

So, I'm assuming his eqBR this year is 1.02.

The formula for SOB is:
Code:
            H + BB + HBP + (SB * .343)--CS + (EqBR * 2.27)
  SOB =     ------------------------------------------------
                              PA--SH


Giving Reyes:

Code:

             79 + 29 + 1 + (30 * .343)--7 + (1.02 * 2.27)
  SOB =     ------------------------------------------------
                              325--1



His estimated speed-adjusted OBP this year is .354


Which is interesting because it means it's the equivalent of an average running leadoff hitter giving you a .350 OBP, which is decent (thanks to his recent hot streak) but still by no means good. I guess it's better than I had feared though. Thanks for the legwork HDP.

So to conclude, Reyes is better than most at scoring once he gets on (which we all knew), but very poor at getting on, which in the end cancels out and makes him ... mediocre? Smile
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JPSchmack
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Old_Backstop wrote:
HireDePodesta wrote:
Baseball Prospectus claimed they were going to put eqBR on their site, but I'm not seeing it.

I used the 2006 expected runs matrix to rework the formula they used. Reyes' eqBR on September 5, 2005 was 2.0(133 games). I'll use the same number again, adjusted for the number of games played this year.

So, I'm assuming his eqBR this year is 1.02.

The formula for SOB is:
Code:
            H + BB + HBP + (SB * .343)--CS + (EqBR * 2.27)
  SOB =     ------------------------------------------------
                              PA--SH


Giving Reyes:

Code:

             79 + 29 + 1 + (30 * .343)--7 + (1.02 * 2.27)
  SOB =     ------------------------------------------------
                              325--1



His estimated speed-adjusted OBP this year is .354


Which is interesting because it means it's the equivalent of an average running leadoff hitter giving you a .350 OBP, which is decent (thanks to his recent hot streak) but still by no means good. I guess it's better than I had feared though. Thanks for the legwork HDP.

So to conclude, Reyes is better than most at scoring once he gets on (which we all knew), but very poor at getting on, which in the end cancels out and makes him ... mediocre? Smile



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charlie_obrien_fan



Joined: 15 May 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even without any adjustments for stolen bases, Reyes is 5th in the NL in OPS among leadoff hitters (9th in OBP, 3rd in SLG).

Then factoring Reyes net steals (30-7= 23), and that only one other NL leadoff hitter has more than 15 net steals- Juan Pierre: 23-5= 18, Reyes is without a doubt one of the best leadoff hitters in the NL.

I'd like to see SOB stats for all of the leadoff hitters (with accurate eqBR numbers).
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m2c2c2
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HireDePodesta wrote:
SOB is speed-adjusted OBP. It takes into account stolen bases, caught stealing, and base running ability beyond just stolen bases(taking extra bases, etc.).


That is a great sounding stat.

How do they quantify taking extra bases? isn't that subjective? How about getting picked off or thrown out or advancing on errors or weak throws?

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HireDePodesta
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 7:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

m2c2c2 wrote:
HireDePodesta wrote:
SOB is speed-adjusted OBP. It takes into account stolen bases, caught stealing, and base running ability beyond just stolen bases(taking extra bases, etc.).


That is a great sounding stat.

How do they quantify taking extra bases? isn't that subjective? How about getting picked off or thrown out or advancing on errors or weak throws?


That is what I'm not sure of.

James Click did an essay on eqBR in their 2005 annual, but I don't have it. My understanding is he used play by play data, and made adjustments for a ton of things, including the outfielder's arms, park, outs, and the runner.

I emailed Baseball Prospectus to see if they're going to put the stat up on their site any time soon. They claimed they were going to do it in 2005, but I can't find it.

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m2c2c2
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 8:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That would interest me. I've always liked speed players for the intangibles. My son is a speed kid (3.91 from the right side to 1B in the last showcase) and I had two others I coached. In Babe Ruth my son had a stat of 1 run scored for every 2 plate appearance (not ABs, and he walked a ton. The other two didn't get on as much, but if any of them did, they were super disruptive.

The usual was put a take on and steal second, put a fake bunt /steal on and steal third, and suicide the run in. Sometimes it was three pitches and the other team didn't know what hit it.

They would all pinch in the second time around the order knowing they had to hurry their throws....creating hits through the gaps and errors...good baseball, a lot of fun.

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spadanko



Joined: 14 May 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2006 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hey flakenstien, who was player of the week this week?

in the words of Otto and George

"Die get in the coffin"

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joeidaho



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 26, 2006 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

where are you now flakenstein????

He has not posted in over a month:

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Coincidence?
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jwill8204
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 12, 2006 2:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL who put this gem in here? good job. great thread.

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senor_mike
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ahhhh, I can re-read this thread every day.

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emptynetter95



Joined: 15 May 2006
Posts: 376

PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What a pussy. He should at least show up and admit he was completely wrong to have talked so much smack for so long about one of the best young players in the game.
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spadanko



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA.. this is great

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RedxDragon



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where is flakenstein now???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

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EverybodyLovesRB
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 11:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LMFAO flakenshit just got I'm a nerd.

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FONZIE993



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I called Flake a troll on the ESPN boards, and guess what I'm right

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jmb9191
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last year at the start of the season some guy called for Reyes to be shipped outta town...15 page thread...that would be in our halls today.

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02/8-9/07, 3/5/07 WFAN. Jon from Marlboro...and Morganville


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